Bangal -Kerala election may have some interesting twists

In Bengal, the Left voters shifted to the BJP and in Kerala the Congress will lose Elections will be held in four states and one union territory in April-May 2021. Elections will be held in Kerala, Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and the Union Territory of Pondicherry. Of these, Kerala and Bengal will be the biggest headache for the Congress and the Left. These parties are in the process of contesting as an alliance in Bengal and as rivals in Kerala. Being the DMK front in Tamil Nadu is not a big issue. At present, the fight in Bengal is between the Trinamool and the BJP. There, the alliance between the Congress and the Left will affect the elections in Kerala as well. The BJP's campaign highlighting this alliance will definitely benefit them. Political History of Bengal The state of Bengal was ruled by the Congress till 1967 after its formation. In 1967, the CPM-led United Front won. But the center dismissed the Government. In 1969, the United Front again became a major party. In 1970, the Chief Minister of the Front resigned. Once again the president's rule was implemented. Here we can see the similarities of the early instability of Governments in Kerala. But in 1972, the Congress came to power. Siddhartha Shankar Ray became the Chief Minister. This rule lasted until 1977. The Left Alliance led by Jyoti Basu had been in power since 1977, when the people voted against the state of emergency. In 2000, Buddhadeb Bhattacharya took over the leadership. In 2011, the Trinamool Congress-Congress alliance defeated the Left and ended 34 years of Left rule. Mamata Banerjee came to power. In 2016, Trinamool repeated its success on its own. Left in Bengal to BJP The BJP had no roots in Bengal. The BJP sided with Trinamool in the 1998, 1999 and 2004 Lok Sabha elections. But in the 2001 and 2006 assembly elections, the Trinamool allied with the Congress. In the 2011 assembly elections, the BJP's vote share was 4%. But in the Modi wave of 2014, it turned out to be 17% of the vote and 2 Lok Sabha seats. There was no leakage in the Congress-Trinamool vote bank, but there was a huge influx from the Left. But the Left made no attempt to prevent this. In the 2016 Assembly elections, the Congress-Left alliance won 39% of the vote, while the Trinamool won 45%. The Congress won 44 seats, while the Left came in third with 32 seats. The BJP's vote share has gone down from 17% to 10%. But that 7% decrease did not get to the left. Their vote share also fell by 3%. Then the BJP did everything it could for communal polarization. The BJP has increased its vote share in all the by-elections held since 2016. This was a huge boost in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Out of a total of 42 seats, BJP won18 with 40% of the vote share. Left votes fell from 27% to 7.5%. The Congress also lost 7% of the vote share. Trinamool lost 2% of the vote. In other words, during 2016-19, one crore voters from the Left went to the BJP. With this, the players in the court changed. Trinamool and BJP are in the ground .Congress and Left are now spectators. The Congress-Left alliance is merely an attempt to retain the existing vote bank. Broad anti-BJP front The Congress and the Left can join a broad based anti-BJP alliance with the Trinamool. But a number of personal and partisan factors hampers that chance. Trinamool is now the main enemy of the Congress and the Left. In other words, the Congress-Left alliance will indirectly help the BJP. Mamata Banerjee is unable to control the corruption and gangsterism of Trinamool leaders. Former minister Suvendu Adhikari, 6 MLAs, one MP of TMC, 2 MLAs from the Left and one Congress MLA joined the BJP in front of Amit Shah. There may be more flows in coming days. Out of a population of 10 crore, 27% belong to the Muslim community. This vote bank will not bleed if a broad alliance is formed. Otherwise, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeenum will share these votes in addition to the Congress-Left alliance and the Trinamool. The BJP can benefit from this split of anti BJP vote bank. How will it affect Kerala? Bengal and Kerala have many similrities in art,cuture,literature and politics. Realizing that there was a huge influx of people from the Left to the BJP in Bengal, the Left in Kerala is moving ahead with extreme minority policies, hijacking the traditional vote bank of United Democratic Front.BJP will highlight the congress-LDF alliance at Bangal and project BJP as an alternative to LDF. The Left Alliance, which has won the Kerala Congress Jose faction, may be able to achieve temporary gains and continuity of government by garnering maximum Christian-Muslim votes. In the future, the BJP is likely to be an alternative to the Left. In the years to come, a flow of voters from UDF to BJP may happen just as the Left voters done in Bengal